Congress is taking a closer look at the rapid rise of prediction markets — online platforms where users bet on the outcome of future events, including elections, economic shifts, and even military operations.
What once seemed like a niche form of digital wagering has now become a growing concern in Washington.
Unlike traditional sports betting, prediction markets allow people to place money on major global developments such as whether oil prices will rise, how political races will end, or when a war might conclude. Supporters say these platforms reflect public sentiment and forecast outcomes. Critics argue that they can incentivize the misuse of non-public information.
“It reduces human beings to being commodities. Somebody’s making money off the calamity of others.”
Dr. RaShan Frost, ERLC director of research
That concern intensified following a high-profile case involving a U.S. Special Forces soldier accused of profiting from inside information tied to a military operation. Authorities say Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed bets on Polymarket just hours before the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and later made roughly $400,000. He now faces charges including theft of government information and commodities fraud.
The case has become a flashpoint in Congress.
During a recent exchange, Sen. Elizabeth Warren pressed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over suspicious trading activity connected to wartime information.
“It looks like insiders have been making out like bandits,” Warren said, asking whether the timing of certain trades could be explained by anything other than insider trading.
Hegseth responded that the department’s handling of information had been “completely above board.”
In response, lawmakers are now pursuing tougher restrictions. Proposed measures would bar military personnel and Pentagon civilian employees from using prediction markets to bet on global events. Congress is also looking to apply similar rules to members of Congress and their staffs.
