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Explainer: The conundrum in the UK over no-deal Brexit

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September 6, 2019

Over the past week, internal conflicts over Brexit has pushed the British government to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Here is what you should know to make sense of the issue, and to understand why it matters for Christians across the globe.

What is Brexit?

Brexit is merely the shorthand abbreviation for “British exit,” which refers to the UK leaving the European Union (EU).

British, Irish, and Commonwealth citizens voted in June 2016 on the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” The referendum resulted in 51.9% of votes being in favor of leaving the EU. Although the referendum wasn’t legally binding, the government at the time agreed to abide by the desire of the people. Two subsequent elections have also given the government a mandate to proceed with the disentanglement from the EU.

What is the European Union?

After two World Wars devastated the continent, Europe realized that increasing ties between nations through trade might increase stability and lead to peace.

In 1958, this led to the creation of the European Economic Community (EEC), an arrangement that increased economic cooperation between six countries: Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

Over the next few decades, more countries joined (there are now 28 member state) and it morphed into a federalist-style economic-political union. The UK joined in 1973, and in 1993, the name was changed to the European Union.

The EU institutions are: the European Council, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Court of Justice of the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the European Court of Auditors.

Why is there a push for the UK to leave?

One of the main principles of EU membership is “free movement“, which means any citizens living in an EU country can live and work in another member nation without needing a visa (it’s similar to how in the United States you don’t need a work visa to move from California to Texas or live in Missouri and work in Kansas). This prevents a country from having much say into who can enter, and some people in the UK prefer to have more control over their borders.

The EU also imposes numerous restrictions on businesses, requires full regulatory compliance, and acceptance of the supremacy of EU law. Critics of the EU also say that the UK could get many of the same benefits of trade without having to pay billions of pounds (the UK currency) to be a member state. (Denmark and the UK are two member states that have opted out of using the euro, the official currency of the eurozone, which consists of 19 of the 28 member states.)

What is “Soft,” “Hard,” and “No-Deal” Brexit”?

This exit from the EU can take many forms, from “soft” to “hard.” When people refer to Soft Brexit they are referring to a situation in which the UK stays  either within the EU’s Single Market by becoming a member of the European Economic Area (like Norway), or in the EU Customs Union, or both. When people refer to Hard Brexit they are referring to a situation where the UK would leave not only the EU but also the EU’s Single Market and the EU Customs Union.

Under Soft Brexit the economic impact of leaving the EU would likely be minimal. However, if it remained in the Single Market, the UK would have to maintain free movement of EU citizens, would have to contribute to the EU budget, and would remain subject to judgments of the European Court of Justice and it. Under Hard Brexit the UK would not have to sign up to free movement of EU nationals, would not be subject to the European Court of Justice, and would likely not have to contribute to the EU budget. However, the economic impact of leaving the EU would likely be substantial since the UK would have to negotiate new trade agreements with the EU and many other countries.

No-Deal is the most extreme of the Hard Brexit options, and is predicted to have a significant impact on the UK economy.

What is the current crisis about?

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing for the no-deal Brexit to take effect on October 19. But within his own Conservative Party (known as Tories) 21 members of parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons have joined with other parties in voting for an extension to UK's membership in the EU—essentially a vote against a no-deal Brexit. (The MPs who voted against Johnson have been kicked out of the Conservative Party.) That bill is now pending a vote in the other chamber of the UK parliament, the House of Lords, where it is expected to pass.

In response to the bill, Johnson is pushing for a general election—known as a “snap election”—in the hopes of replacing the members of his own party with ones that will support his Brexit strategy. Under the British system, a snap election can be approved by a two-thirds supermajority of MPs in the House of Commons.

If the Conservative Party wins 35 percent of the national vote in the snap election, Johnson would remain prime minister and his party would have a mandate for no-deal Brexit. If the Conservative Party was not able to retain control after the snap election, Johnson would be replaced and the future of Brexit would once again be unclear.

So far, MPs who oppose Johnson have not yet agreed to hold a new election. But Johnson is attempting to “prorogue Parliament” (i.e., forcing a five-week hiatus) which could begin as early as Monday. This measure, which is being challenged in the courts, would push a resolution of the issue close to the October 19 deadline. MPs will vote on the issue of a snap election on Monday.

What are the potential ramifications?

Opponents of a no-deal Brexit claim it could lead to a self-imposed humanitarian crisis on citizens in the UK. For example, because almost one-third of Britain’s food comes from the EU, the change could result in higher food prices and shortages. Similarly, some medications—including common painkillers and anti-depressants—will be more expensive and less available Both of these will have a harmful effect on the poor in the UK.

The Bank of England (the equivalent to the U.S. Federal Reserve) has also predicted that it would lead to an immediate economic crash that would be worse than the Great Recession of 2008 (the UK economy shrunk 6% between the first quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009 and is estimated to shrink 8% after a no-deal Brexit). Unemployment may also nearly double from the current rate of 3.9% to 7.5%, while inflation could triple from 2% to 6.5%. All of these economic forces would have a devastating effect on the poor.

No-deal Brexit would also mean the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would immediately become an external EU border, requiring customs checks. As the Council on Foreign Relations notes, many worry that a hard border could undermine the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and even revive conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.

However, supporters of no-deal Brexit claim the concern are overblown and that the economy can handle the breakup. They also believe that politicians have stalled for too long and are failing to represent the will of the people to reinstitute national sovereignty. For them, the restoration of political autonomy and liberty outweigh the possible dangers of a no-deal Brexit.

Article 12: The Future of AI

We affirm that AI will continue to be developed in ways that we cannot currently imagine or understand, including AI that will far surpass many human abilities. God alone has the power to create life, and no future advancements in AI will usurp Him as the Creator of life. The church has a unique role in proclaiming human dignity for all and calling for the humane use of AI in all aspects of society.

We deny that AI will make us more or less human, or that AI will ever obtain a coequal level of worth, dignity, or value to image-bearers. Future advancements in AI will not ultimately fulfill our longings for a perfect world. While we are not able to comprehend or know the future, we do not fear what is to come because we know that God is omniscient and that nothing we create will be able to thwart His redemptive plan for creation or to supplant humanity as His image-bearers.

Genesis 1; Isaiah 42:8; Romans 1:20-21; 5:2; Ephesians 1:4-6; 2 Timothy 1:7-9; Revelation 5:9-10

Article 11: Public Policy

We affirm that the fundamental purposes of government are to protect human beings from harm, punish those who do evil, uphold civil liberties, and to commend those who do good. The public has a role in shaping and crafting policies concerning the use of AI in society, and these decisions should not be left to those who develop these technologies or to governments to set norms.

We deny that AI should be used by governments, corporations, or any entity to infringe upon God-given human rights. AI, even in a highly advanced state, should never be delegated the governing authority that has been granted by an all-sovereign God to human beings alone. 

Romans 13:1-7; Acts 10:35; 1 Peter 2:13-14

Article 10: War

We affirm that the use of AI in warfare should be governed by love of neighbor and the principles of just war. The use of AI may mitigate the loss of human life, provide greater protection of non-combatants, and inform better policymaking. Any lethal action conducted or substantially enabled by AI must employ 5 human oversight or review. All defense-related AI applications, such as underlying data and decision-making processes, must be subject to continual review by legitimate authorities. When these systems are deployed, human agents bear full moral responsibility for any actions taken by the system.

We deny that human agency or moral culpability in war can be delegated to AI. No nation or group has the right to use AI to carry out genocide, terrorism, torture, or other war crimes.

Genesis 4:10; Isaiah 1:16-17; Psalm 37:28; Matthew 5:44; 22:37-39; Romans 13:4

Article 9: Security

We affirm that AI has legitimate applications in policing, intelligence, surveillance, investigation, and other uses supporting the government’s responsibility to respect human rights, to protect and preserve human life, and to pursue justice in a flourishing society.

We deny that AI should be employed for safety and security applications in ways that seek to dehumanize, depersonalize, or harm our fellow human beings. We condemn the use of AI to suppress free expression or other basic human rights granted by God to all human beings.

Romans 13:1-7; 1 Peter 2:13-14

Article 8: Data & Privacy

We affirm that privacy and personal property are intertwined individual rights and choices that should not be violated by governments, corporations, nation-states, and other groups, even in the pursuit of the common good. While God knows all things, it is neither wise nor obligatory to have every detail of one’s life open to society.

We deny the manipulative and coercive uses of data and AI in ways that are inconsistent with the love of God and love of neighbor. Data collection practices should conform to ethical guidelines that uphold the dignity of all people. We further deny that consent, even informed consent, although requisite, is the only necessary ethical standard for the collection, manipulation, or exploitation of personal data—individually or in the aggregate. AI should not be employed in ways that distort truth through the use of generative applications. Data should not be mishandled, misused, or abused for sinful purposes to reinforce bias, strengthen the powerful, or demean the weak.

Exodus 20:15, Psalm 147:5; Isaiah 40:13-14; Matthew 10:16 Galatians 6:2; Hebrews 4:12-13; 1 John 1:7 

Article 7: Work

We affirm that work is part of God’s plan for human beings participating in the cultivation and stewardship of creation. The divine pattern is one of labor and rest in healthy proportion to each other. Our view of work should not be confined to commercial activity; it must also include the many ways that human beings serve each other through their efforts. AI can be used in ways that aid our work or allow us to make fuller use of our gifts. The church has a Spirit-empowered responsibility to help care for those who lose jobs and to encourage individuals, communities, employers, and governments to find ways to invest in the development of human beings and continue making vocational contributions to our lives together.

We deny that human worth and dignity is reducible to an individual’s economic contributions to society alone. Humanity should not use AI and other technological innovations as a reason to move toward lives of pure leisure even if greater social wealth creates such possibilities.

Genesis 1:27; 2:5; 2:15; Isaiah 65:21-24; Romans 12:6-8; Ephesians 4:11-16

Article 6: Sexuality

We affirm the goodness of God’s design for human sexuality which prescribes the sexual union to be an exclusive relationship between a man and a woman in the lifelong covenant of marriage.

We deny that the pursuit of sexual pleasure is a justification for the development or use of AI, and we condemn the objectification of humans that results from employing AI for sexual purposes. AI should not intrude upon or substitute for the biblical expression of sexuality between a husband and wife according to God’s design for human marriage.

Genesis 1:26-29; 2:18-25; Matthew 5:27-30; 1 Thess 4:3-4

Article 5: Bias

We affirm that, as a tool created by humans, AI will be inherently subject to bias and that these biases must be accounted for, minimized, or removed through continual human oversight and discretion. AI should be designed and used in such ways that treat all human beings as having equal worth and dignity. AI should be utilized as a tool to identify and eliminate bias inherent in human decision-making.

We deny that AI should be designed or used in ways that violate the fundamental principle of human dignity for all people. Neither should AI be used in ways that reinforce or further any ideology or agenda, seeking to subjugate human autonomy under the power of the state.

Micah 6:8; John 13:34; Galatians 3:28-29; 5:13-14; Philippians 2:3-4; Romans 12:10

Article 4: Medicine

We affirm that AI-related advances in medical technologies are expressions of God’s common grace through and for people created in His image and that these advances will increase our capacity to provide enhanced medical diagnostics and therapeutic interventions as we seek to care for all people. These advances should be guided by basic principles of medical ethics, including beneficence, non-maleficence, autonomy, and justice, which are all consistent with the biblical principle of loving our neighbor.

We deny that death and disease—effects of the Fall—can ultimately be eradicated apart from Jesus Christ. Utilitarian applications regarding healthcare distribution should not override the dignity of human life. Fur- 3 thermore, we reject the materialist and consequentialist worldview that understands medical applications of AI as a means of improving, changing, or completing human beings.

Matthew 5:45; John 11:25-26; 1 Corinthians 15:55-57; Galatians 6:2; Philippians 2:4

Article 3: Relationship of AI & Humanity

We affirm the use of AI to inform and aid human reasoning and moral decision-making because it is a tool that excels at processing data and making determinations, which often mimics or exceeds human ability. While AI excels in data-based computation, technology is incapable of possessing the capacity for moral agency or responsibility.

We deny that humans can or should cede our moral accountability or responsibilities to any form of AI that will ever be created. Only humanity will be judged by God on the basis of our actions and that of the tools we create. While technology can be created with a moral use in view, it is not a moral agent. Humans alone bear the responsibility for moral decision making.

Romans 2:6-8; Galatians 5:19-21; 2 Peter 1:5-8; 1 John 2:1

Article 2: AI as Technology

We affirm that the development of AI is a demonstration of the unique creative abilities of human beings. When AI is employed in accordance with God’s moral will, it is an example of man’s obedience to the divine command to steward creation and to honor Him. We believe in innovation for the glory of God, the sake of human flourishing, and the love of neighbor. While we acknowledge the reality of the Fall and its consequences on human nature and human innovation, technology can be used in society to uphold human dignity. As a part of our God-given creative nature, human beings should develop and harness technology in ways that lead to greater flourishing and the alleviation of human suffering.

We deny that the use of AI is morally neutral. It is not worthy of man’s hope, worship, or love. Since the Lord Jesus alone can atone for sin and reconcile humanity to its Creator, technology such as AI cannot fulfill humanity’s ultimate needs. We further deny the goodness and benefit of any application of AI that devalues or degrades the dignity and worth of another human being. 

Genesis 2:25; Exodus 20:3; 31:1-11; Proverbs 16:4; Matthew 22:37-40; Romans 3:23

Article 1: Image of God

We affirm that God created each human being in His image with intrinsic and equal worth, dignity, and moral agency, distinct from all creation, and that humanity’s creativity is intended to reflect God’s creative pattern.

We deny that any part of creation, including any form of technology, should ever be used to usurp or subvert the dominion and stewardship which has been entrusted solely to humanity by God; nor should technology be assigned a level of human identity, worth, dignity, or moral agency.

Genesis 1:26-28; 5:1-2; Isaiah 43:6-7; Jeremiah 1:5; John 13:34; Colossians 1:16; 3:10; Ephesians 4:24